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Debt Deflation in Spain: Record 4.7% Decline in Household Credit, Business Lending Down 10%

MishTalk

If we look at the evolution of the cash flow of borrowed money, the net change in assets is a decrease is 4.7%. In both cases, the amount of money borrowed is at its lowest level since 2007. Mike "Mish" Shedlock [link] Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management.

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Consultant Ninja: When "hedging" is just speculation: Management.

Consultant Ninja

Management Consultant | Excel Jockey | Slide Monkey | Corporate Insurgent | One-Eyed Man in the Valley of the Blind Mckinsey | Bain | BCG | Booz | Oliver Wyman. Uniteds fuel hedging strategy has all the marks of some smooth-talking consultants or bankers. It also appears that UAL did very little hedging in 2007 or 2006.

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China Faces "Minsky Moment" on Ponzi Financing

MishTalk

China’s private sector debt has increased from 115% of GDP in 2007 to 193% at the end of 2013. reached in 2007. Mike "Mish" Shedlock [link] Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. That 80% increase over five years compares to the U.S.’s s 26% in 2000-2005.

Finance 75
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Imagination Sets In

MishTalk

Annual Update Between the end of 2007 and end of 2014, pension plan assets rose from $3.29 S&P 500 2007-12-31 to 2014-12-31 In the same timeframe, the S&P 500 rose from 1489.36 GMO Forecast "The chart represents real return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any GMO fund or strategy. trillion to $3.71

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Housing Starts in China Plunge 25%; Did China's Property Bubble Finally Burst?

MishTalk

Property investment has grown to account for about 13 per cent of gross domestic product, roughly double the US share at the height of the bubble in 2007. Rates of return on commercial property and infrastructure, and cash flows for developers and local government, have been deteriorating.

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Fed Balance Sheet vs. Stock Market; Will QE Cause Inflation?

MishTalk

So refraining from any forecast of what will happen in the near term, it’s sufficient to observe that the economic data is not nearly as strong as widely perceived, and the impact of QE on stock prices does nothing to improve the underlying cash flows. December 2007 (69). November 2007 (91). October 2007 (56).

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Hussman's Open Letter to the Fed; The Problem with Bubbles; Textbook Pre-Crash Bubble; Reflections on Not Chasing Bubbles; Integrity vs. Respect

MishTalk

At this horizon, even “buy-and-hold” strategies in stocks are inappropriate except for a small fraction of assets. Zig Ziglar This story is more than a quote about persistence – it’s actually a reasonable description of risk-managed investing. 1 Flow of Funds data. We’re just getting warmed up.