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How the Great Recession Changed Banking

Harvard Business

The Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 was under way. That strengthened investment banks’ balance sheets by forcing them to scale back and to change the nature of the risks they take. Fees earned from advising companies and helping them issue debt are up 25%, and now account for one-quarter of the industry’s earnings.

Banking 28
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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

Trucking Industry Entering a Profit-Killing Era of Overcapacity? As surface transportation’s peak period ends for the year, and trucking eyes the traditionally slowest time for the industry as first quarter 2016, economic signals are, at best, mixed. So far, the industry does not appear to be doing that. percent to $160.7

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China's Forex Reserves Drop Most On Record: What Does It Mean? Inflation Tsunami?

MishTalk

If China isn't going to expand its balance sheet anymore, that means it has to stop buying treasuries. When China stops expanding its balance sheet, that also means that the Chinese currency is going to appreciate, and China said it will allow that appreciation to happen. I did call the 2007 top within a few percent.

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Inequality Isn’t Just Due to Market Forces — It’s Caused by Decisions the Boss Makes, Too

Harvard Business

Despite these significant labor investments, from 2007 to the end of 2016, Costco’s stock price increased over 200%, far outpacing the overall growth of the S&P 500 (58%) and that of competitors like Walmart (45%) and Target (26%), which is known to pay workers low wages and offer relatively meager employee benefits.

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Reflections on "Uncertainty"; Yellen Expects Rates Hikes but "Uncertain" about Growth, Jobs, Inflation, Wages

MishTalk

Outlook for the Economy The latest estimates show that both real GDP and industrial production actually edged down in the first quarter of this year. Nevertheless, at least a couple of other more persistent factors also likely weighed on economic output and industrial production in the first quarter.

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Pettis Proposes Savings Glut and Income Inequality are Source of Global Imbalances; Mish vs. Pettis: I Respectfully Disagree

MishTalk

This model rests on an understanding of how distortions in the savings rates of different countries have driven the great trade and balance-sheet distortions with which we are wrestling today, just as they have in most previous global crises, including those of the 1870s, the 1930s, and the 1970s. Pettis concludes.

Banking 67
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Reflections on 2013; What's Important, What's Not? What's Ahead?

MishTalk

Had I suggested in 2007 that the Fed balance sheet expansion of $75 billion a month would have been considered "tightening" people would have thought I was nuts. Ironically, Merkel immediately followed up with " The German government would not tolerate a weakening of German industry or job losses ". Here we are.