MishTalk

SEPTEMBER 21, 2017

In response to Janet Yellen’s everything is OK speech following today’s balance sheet reduction notice by the FOMC committee, I received an interesting set of comments from Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog regarding rate hike cycles, gold, and stock market peaks. Mish Reading List. Gold vs. Faith in Central Banks.

Balance Sheet 37

Balance Sheet Banking Trends Analysis 37

Harvard Business

OCTOBER 31, 2017

The Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 was under way. That strengthened investment banks’ balance sheets by forcing them to scale back and to change the nature of the risks they take. Investment bank Bear Stearns collapsed. Lehman Brothers toppled. Investment banks used to trade using their own capital.

Banking 28

Banking Balance Sheet Financial Finance 28

MishTalk

JUNE 30, 2013

And the recent cash crunch in the interbank market is likely to slow expansion of off-balance sheet lending, further exacerbating funding conditions for SMEs. December 2007 (69). November 2007 (91). October 2007 (56). September 2007 (49). August 2007 (61). July 2007 (44). June 2007 (38).

Trends 72

Trends Analysis Real Estate Financial 72

MishTalk

JUNE 28, 2013

But with the collapse of the housing market in 2007-08, much of that business returned to the FHA. While these reforms may improve FHAs balance sheet over the long term, they would also reduce market liquidity, which in turn could cause home prices to fall. December 2007 (69). November 2007 (91). October 2007 (56).

Trends 74

Trends Analysis Real Estate Case Interview 74

Harvard Business

SEPTEMBER 25, 2017

Since 2007, gross cross-border capital flows have fallen by 65%, and half of that is due to a sharp reduction in cross-border lending and other banking activities, a new McKinsey Global Institute report finds. According to Dealogic, banks have divested more than $2 trillion in assets since 2007. trillion, or 45%.

Banking 28

Banking Balance Sheet McKinsey Finance 28

MishTalk

FEBRUARY 2, 2015

Since 2007 nearly every Fed economic forecast has been on the optimistic side. Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. I have mentioned that numerous times in recent years, even after it was long understood the recession of 2007-2009 was a balance-sheet recession.

Study 28

Study Balance Sheet Banking Construction 28

MishTalk

JULY 11, 2014

This share was higher than during the pre-crisis period from 2005 to mid-2007. Historical evidence shows that this rarely happens following a balance sheet recession. In the syndicated loan market, for instance, credit granted to lower-rated leveraged borrowers (leveraged loans) exceeded 40% of new signings for much of 2013.

Balance Sheet 74

Balance Sheet Financial Banking Policies 74

MishTalk

FEBRUARY 6, 2014

The balance sheet of the European Central Bank has fallen by €553bn over the past year as banks repay money that they no longer want, either because ECB funds are too costly in a near-deflationary world or because lenders are being compelled by regulators to shrink their books. The US and China are withdrawing stimulus on purpose.

Balance Sheet 72

Balance Sheet Banking Retail Policies 72

MishTalk

JUNE 27, 2013

But one way or another we do have to write down the huge hidden losses in the country’s balance sheet, and this will mean not a collapse but rather many years of Japanese-style slow growth as the system grinds its way though its excesses. the country’s balance sheet, and this will mean not a collapse but.

Trends 70

Trends Analysis Real Estate Banking 70

MishTalk

JULY 2, 2013

Here are some examples: Gold and silver in the 1980s, tech stocks in 2000, housing in 2005, the stock market in general in 2007 and arguably again (this time on the misguided belief the Fed has the markets back and nothing can go wrong). December 2007 (69). November 2007 (91). October 2007 (56). September 2007 (49).

Trends 63

Trends Analysis Real Estate Financial 63

MishTalk

NOVEMBER 20, 2015

In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee began releasing projections for real GDP growth four times per year in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). When the bubble bursts, the resulting debt overhang forces borrowers to repair their balance sheets via reduced spending or default.

Balance Sheet 28

Balance Sheet Banking Study Policies 28

MishTalk

OCTOBER 8, 2015

If China isn't going to expand its balance sheet anymore, that means it has to stop buying treasuries. When China stops expanding its balance sheet, that also means that the Chinese currency is going to appreciate, and China said it will allow that appreciation to happen. I did call the 2007 top within a few percent.

Balance Sheet 28

Balance Sheet Telecommunications Video Analysis 28

MishTalk

JULY 10, 2013

Participants also described their views regarding the appropriate path of the Federal Reserves balance sheet. December 2007 (69). November 2007 (91). October 2007 (56). September 2007 (49). August 2007 (61). July 2007 (44). June 2007 (38). May 2007 (29). April 2007 (28).

Real Estate 61

Real Estate Financial Policies Advertising 61

MishTalk

JANUARY 8, 2014

The projected improvement in economic activity was expected to be supported by highly accommodative monetary policy, diminished fiscal policy restraint, and a pickup in global economic growth, as well as a further easing of credit conditions and continued improvements in household balance sheets.

Policies 72

Policies Balance Sheet Financial Meeting 72

Harvard Business

OCTOBER 20, 2016

According to the World Trade Organization, international trade this year will grow at its slowest pace since 2007. As a practical matter, for example, these changes in the global policy regime are forcing multinational corporations to scale back and sell parts of their international operations. at the forefront.

Balance Sheet 28

Balance Sheet Policies Operations Banking 28

MishTalk

MARCH 24, 2014

The next bust will be unlike any other, because the Fed and other centrals banks around the world have taken on all this leverage that was out there and put it on their balance sheets. This bubble is in a rare class with 1929, 2000, and 2007. We have never had this before. Assets are overpriced generally.

Marketing 70

Marketing Balance Sheet Interviews Benchmarking 70

MishTalk

SEPTEMBER 15, 2015

Without paying banks interest to hold excess reserves idle in the banking system, the Fed could reduce its balance sheet by more than one-third (over $1.4 Similar precipices, such as 1929 and 2000, and even lesser precipices like 1906, 1937, 1973 and 2007 have always had unfortunate endings. Notice something.

Balance Sheet 28

Balance Sheet Banking Financial Policies 28

Harvard Business

MARCH 30, 2017

Despite these significant labor investments, from 2007 to the end of 2016, Costco’s stock price increased over 200%, far outpacing the overall growth of the S&P 500 (58%) and that of competitors like Walmart (45%) and Target (26%), which is known to pay workers low wages and offer relatively meager employee benefits.

Marketing 28

Marketing Balance Sheet System Training 28

MishTalk

APRIL 6, 2015

If you consolidate all balance sheets in a country (including that of the national treasury), then all liquid assets will be wiped out, with the sole exception of gold. Gold is the only asset that is not duplicated as a liability in the balance sheet of someone else.

Banking 28

Banking Balance Sheet Case Interview Policies 28

MishTalk

MARCH 17, 2014

This model rests on an understanding of how distortions in the savings rates of different countries have driven the great trade and balance-sheet distortions with which we are wrestling today, just as they have in most previous global crises, including those of the 1870s, the 1930s, and the 1970s. Pettis concludes.

Banking 67

Banking Real Estate Productivity Policies 67

MishTalk

JULY 10, 2015

Businesses are holding large amounts of cash on their balance sheets, which may suggest that greater risk aversion is playing a role. The growth rate of output per hour worked in the business sector has averaged about 1‑1/4 percent per year since the recession began in late 2007 and has been essentially flat over the past year.

Policies 28

Policies Balance Sheet Productivity Energy 28

MishTalk

JANUARY 3, 2014

Had I suggested in 2007 that the Fed balance sheet expansion of $75 billion a month would have been considered "tightening" people would have thought I was nuts. Given there shouldn''t be a Fed in the first place, it would be more accurate to state " Yellen and Summers are uniquely unqualified for the job ". Here we are.

Conference 74

Conference Banking Government Balance Sheet 74

MishTalk

APRIL 1, 2015

Chicago used interest rate swaps on its 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009 bond deals, apparently as part of a synthetic fixed rate strategy. ( It is not a balance sheet test, but a cash flow test. This probably wasn’t an accident either. I explain the mechanics of synthetic fixed rate deals in this essay.)

Financial 28

Financial Engineering Finance Government 28