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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

UPS Freight , the fifth-largest LTL, reported tonnage off 10 percent (matching the record decline reported in the 2009 3Q during the depth of the Great Recession) and shipments down 5 percent year over year (the worst drop since 2008 fourth quarter). Overoptimism 2008-2010 The SEP growth forecast for 2008 never turned negative.

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"Treasury Bond Undervalued" Says Hoisington Second Quarter Review; Path to Fiscal Ruin

MishTalk

Rather than repairing its balance sheet by reducing debt, the U.S. Implications for 2014-2015 In previous letters we have shown that the largest economies in the world have a higher total debt to GDP today than at the time of the Great Recession in 2008. percentage points from 2008. Total debt rose to 349.3%

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FOMC Minutes and Economic Projections: Dissent in Both Directions

MishTalk

percent for 2015. All participants saw the appropriate target for the federal funds rate at the end of 2015 as still well below their assessments of its expected longer-run value. Participants also described their views regarding the appropriate path of the Federal Reserves balance sheet. percent at the end of 2015.

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Why GE’s Jeff Immelt Lost His Job: Disruption and Activist Investors

Harvard Business

In 2015 Trian Partners, an activist investor, bought $2.5 In 2015 the 10 largest shareholders in a typical S&P 500 company held almost half of the company’s stock.) But first they need to get management of a company to change the existing strategy. Its stock is trading where it was 20 years ago. of the company.

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Oil’s Boom-and-Bust Cycle May Be Over. Here’s Why

Harvard Business

.—while still a net importer of oil—is now selling millions of barrels of oil to China, Britain, Mexico, and India, a new reality made possible when restrictions on crude oil exports were lifted in 2015. Most major producers with large balance sheets will likely hedge their bets and attempt both. The soaring U.S.

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China's Forex Reserves Drop Most On Record: What Does It Mean? Inflation Tsunami?

MishTalk

If China isn't going to expand its balance sheet anymore, that means it has to stop buying treasuries. When China stops expanding its balance sheet, that also means that the Chinese currency is going to appreciate, and China said it will allow that appreciation to happen. Now what does that mean?

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Fed Study Shows "Persistent Fed Overoptimism about Economic Growth"; What Will They Do About It?

MishTalk

Possible explanations for this pattern include missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis, overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy following a balance-sheet recession, and the natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data. The consumer is poised to do well in early 2015.

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