article thumbnail

Fed Study Shows "Persistent Fed Overoptimism about Economic Growth"; What Will They Do About It?

MishTalk

In an attempt to explain, a new Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco dives into the Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth. In a cross-country study of private-sector forecasts from 1989 to 1998, Loungani (2001) finds that “ the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished. ” A study by Alessi, et al.

Study 28
article thumbnail

Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

The SEP reports the central tendency and range for real GDP growth forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents. 2014) finds that one-year-ahead growth forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the European Central Bank from 2008 to 2012 exhibited substantial overoptimism, averaging 1.6

Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Why GE’s Jeff Immelt Lost His Job: Disruption and Activist Investors

Harvard Business

With refrains of “unlock hidden value” and “increase shareholder value,” and powered by over $120 billion in assets , activist investors like Trian look for companies like GE (or Procter & Gamble) whose share price is underperforming relative to its peers (or that have large amounts of cash on their balance sheets).

article thumbnail

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Ritholtz on Gold and on.

MishTalk

Balanced Budget Ammendment Sign the Balanced Budget Petition. Barring some new developments — like all the gold in Fort Knox becoming irradiated — I do not expect to see a resumption of the 2001-11 uptrend. Bank Lending, Jobs, The Great Retrace. Abolish The Fed Sign the Petition. Home Builders.

Trends 63
article thumbnail

Shockingly Bad Fiscal Health of Chicago (and the Financial Engineering Chicago Uses to Hide that Fact)

MishTalk

Rank-and-file officers rejected a city contract offer in 2001, but an arbitrator ruled in favor of the city’s wage proposal a year later. Judging from the swap confirmations from Deutsche Bank, PNC, and Wells Fargo, these payments amounted to around $25 million. It is not a balance sheet test, but a cash flow test.