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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

Third-quarter Gross Domestic Product grew at a 1.5 UPS Freight , the fifth-largest LTL, reported tonnage off 10 percent (matching the record decline reported in the 2009 3Q during the depth of the Great Recession) and shipments down 5 percent year over year (the worst drop since 2008 fourth quarter). in October from 50.2 in September.

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If You Think Downsizing Might Save Your Company, Think Again

Harvard Business

During the Great Recession of 2008, companies around the world downsized their workforces. American firms alone laid off more than 8 million workers from the end of 2008 to the middle of 2010. Proponents of downsizing argue that it is an effective strategy, with benefits such as increased performance and sales.

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BIS Slams the Fed; Ridiculous Question of the Day: "Is The Fed Going To Attempt A Controlled Collapse?"

MishTalk

Historical evidence shows that this rarely happens following a balance sheet recession. Productivity growth in advanced economies has been on a declining trend since well before the onset of the financial crisis, and the workforce is already shrinking in several countries as the population ages.

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Oil’s Boom-and-Bust Cycle May Be Over. Here’s Why

Harvard Business

In November, United States’ crude oil production exceeded 10 million barrels per day for the first time since 1970, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). oil production, up from a mere 10% just seven years ago in 2011. hbr staff/bettmann/Getty Images. Analysts have predicted that U.S.

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Ben Bernanke vs. John Hussman; Beauty of Truth vs. Beast of Dogma; Four Questions

MishTalk

For example, Hussman posted the following chart of the Taylor Rule (a rule that supposedly will allow the Fed to automatically set interest rates) with this comment. economy based on relationships that are indistinguishable from someone sneezing on a sheet of graph paper. Hussman kicks off with a discussion only geeks can understand.

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Reflections on 2013; What's Important, What's Not? What's Ahead?

MishTalk

Had I suggested in 2007 that the Fed balance sheet expansion of $75 billion a month would have been considered "tightening" people would have thought I was nuts. For example, Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage, No Benefits, Part-Time Job. At long last, the Fed has finally started to taper. Here we are.