MishTalk

NOVEMBER 20, 2015

Explaining the Persistent Overoptimism In a cross-country study of private-sector forecasts from 1989 to 1998, Loungani (2001) finds that “the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.” When the bubble bursts, the resulting debt overhang forces borrowers to repair their balance sheets via reduced spending or default.

Balance Sheet 28

Balance Sheet Banking Study Policies 28

Harvard Business

JULY 15, 2016

No strategy is static. Before Mark Zuckerberg wrote a line of Facebook’s code, Kodak made a prescient purchase, acquiring a photo sharing site called Ofoto in 2001. After all, they have many capabilities that entrants are racing to replicate, such as access to markets, technologies, and healthy balance sheets.

Film 28

Film Balance Sheet Chemicals Engineering 28

Harvard Business

OCTOBER 30, 2017

With refrains of “unlock hidden value” and “increase shareholder value,” and powered by over $120 billion in assets , activist investors like Trian look for companies like GE (or Procter & Gamble) whose share price is underperforming relative to its peers (or that have large amounts of cash on their balance sheets).

Balance Sheet 28

Balance Sheet Financial Journal Company 28

MishTalk

JULY 2, 2013

Barring some new developments — like all the gold in Fort Knox becoming irradiated — I do not expect to see a resumption of the 2001-11 uptrend. or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. [Mish comment - Is that a warning and a prediction, or just a suggestion?].

Trends 63

Trends Analysis Real Estate Financial 63

MishTalk

APRIL 1, 2015

Rank-and-file officers rejected a city contract offer in 2001, but an arbitrator ruled in favor of the city’s wage proposal a year later. Chicago used interest rate swaps on its 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009 bond deals, apparently as part of a synthetic fixed rate strategy. ( It is not a balance sheet test, but a cash flow test.

Financial 28

Financial Engineering Finance Government 28

MishTalk

FEBRUARY 2, 2015

Possible explanations for this pattern include missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis, overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy following a balance-sheet recession, and the natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data. This is a general statement.

Study 28

Study Balance Sheet Banking Construction 28