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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

Of course, there is also persistent overoptimism about earnings growth and stock market expectations. In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee began releasing projections for real GDP growth four times per year in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The actual growth rate for 2008 turned out to be –2.8%—the

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Ritholtz on Gold and on.

MishTalk

Minyanville Business and Market News. Balanced Budget Ammendment Sign the Balanced Budget Petition. China Financial Markets. Market Oracle. Market Ticker. Real Clear Markets. Ritholtz on Gold and on Making Predictions; How Secular Bull Markets End; Winning vs. Investing. Sitka Pacific.

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Why GE’s Jeff Immelt Lost His Job: Disruption and Activist Investors

Harvard Business

During Immelt’s tenure, GE’s stock market value fell by about half. So what happened? Are lean innovation and the startup way a failure in large companies? In fact, what happened is activist investors. Its stock is trading where it was 20 years ago. In 2015 Trian Partners, an activist investor, bought $2.5 of the company.

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Fed Study Shows "Persistent Fed Overoptimism about Economic Growth"; What Will They Do About It?

MishTalk

Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. In a cross-country study of private-sector forecasts from 1989 to 1998, Loungani (2001) finds that “ the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished. ” economic growth. A study by Alessi, et al.

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