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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

UPS Freight , the fifth-largest LTL, reported tonnage off 10 percent (matching the record decline reported in the 2009 3Q during the depth of the Great Recession) and shipments down 5 percent year over year (the worst drop since 2008 fourth quarter). Overoptimism 2008-2010 The SEP growth forecast for 2008 never turned negative.

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Ritholtz on Gold and on.

MishTalk

It’s very easy for a confident-sounding analyst, fund manager or professor to say something on TV that can throw off the best laid plans of investors. Barring some new developments — like all the gold in Fort Knox becoming irradiated — I do not expect to see a resumption of the 2001-11 uptrend. December 2008 (85).

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Why GE’s Jeff Immelt Lost His Job: Disruption and Activist Investors

Harvard Business

Over a period of years, every GE senior manager would learn the lean startup methodology, and GE would be the showcase for how modern companies use entrepreneurial management to transform culture and drive long-term growth. But first they need to get management of a company to change the existing strategy. Then it wasn’t.

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Fed Study Shows "Persistent Fed Overoptimism about Economic Growth"; What Will They Do About It?

MishTalk

Possible explanations for this pattern include missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis, overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy following a balance-sheet recession, and the natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data. A study by Alessi, et al. This is a general statement.

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