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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

UPS Freight , the fifth-largest LTL, reported tonnage off 10 percent (matching the record decline reported in the 2009 3Q during the depth of the Great Recession) and shipments down 5 percent year over year (the worst drop since 2008 fourth quarter). Overoptimism 2008-2010 The SEP growth forecast for 2008 never turned negative.

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: China Manufacturing.

MishTalk

Get Involved The State of the Unions Finances: A Citizens Guide. Balanced Budget Ammendment Sign the Balanced Budget Petition. And the recent cash crunch in the interbank market is likely to slow expansion of off-balance sheet lending, further exacerbating funding conditions for SMEs. December 2008 (85).

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BIS Slams the Fed; Ridiculous Question of the Day: "Is The Fed Going To Attempt A Controlled Collapse?"

MishTalk

Historical evidence shows that this rarely happens following a balance sheet recession. In addition, official statistics may underestimate intangible investment (spending on research and development, training, etc), which has been gaining importance in serviced-based economies. Financial cycles differ from business cycles.

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Reflections on 2013; What's Important, What's Not? What's Ahead?

MishTalk

Had I suggested in 2007 that the Fed balance sheet expansion of $75 billion a month would have been considered "tightening" people would have thought I was nuts. Total credit in the economy (total social financing) showed a 40 per cent rise in November over the prior month and is on course for growth this year of almost 20 per cent.