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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

Of course, there is also persistent overoptimism about earnings growth and stock market expectations. In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee began releasing projections for real GDP growth four times per year in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The actual growth rate for 2008 turned out to be –2.8%—the

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940 Chinese Firms Halt Trading; China Allows Houses as Margin, Bans Use of Term "Equity Disaster"; Two Rules, Two Questions

MishTalk

Two Rules Every bubble eventually bursts The bigger the bubble the bigger the bust Central banks globally have blown the biggest bubble ever in the wake of the 2008 crash. China's Market and Policy Timeline Bloomberg has an interesting graph of China's Market and Policy Timeline. Two Questions How fast? Where Next?

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Reflections on 2013; What's Important, What's Not? What's Ahead?

MishTalk

Had I suggested in 2007 that the Fed balance sheet expansion of $75 billion a month would have been considered "tightening" people would have thought I was nuts. A similar crash in public opinion awaits Bernanke for fueling one of the biggest, if not the biggest stock and bond market bubbles in history. Here we are.