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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

UPS Freight , the fifth-largest LTL, reported tonnage off 10 percent (matching the record decline reported in the 2009 3Q during the depth of the Great Recession) and shipments down 5 percent year over year (the worst drop since 2008 fourth quarter). Overoptimism 2008-2010 The SEP growth forecast for 2008 never turned negative.

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Reflections on 2013; What's Important, What's Not? What's Ahead?

MishTalk

Had I suggested in 2007 that the Fed balance sheet expansion of $75 billion a month would have been considered "tightening" people would have thought I was nuts. Total credit in the economy (total social financing) showed a 40 per cent rise in November over the prior month and is on course for growth this year of almost 20 per cent.