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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

UPS Freight , the fifth-largest LTL, reported tonnage off 10 percent (matching the record decline reported in the 2009 3Q during the depth of the Great Recession) and shipments down 5 percent year over year (the worst drop since 2008 fourth quarter). Overoptimism 2008-2010 The SEP growth forecast for 2008 never turned negative.

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940 Chinese Firms Halt Trading; China Allows Houses as Margin, Bans Use of Term "Equity Disaster"; Two Rules, Two Questions

MishTalk

Two Rules Every bubble eventually bursts The bigger the bubble the bigger the bust Central banks globally have blown the biggest bubble ever in the wake of the 2008 crash. We have only just begun to see the carnage that is coming. That carnage started in China and it's going to spread. Two Questions How fast? Where Next?

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Reflections on 2013; What's Important, What's Not? What's Ahead?

MishTalk

Had I suggested in 2007 that the Fed balance sheet expansion of $75 billion a month would have been considered "tightening" people would have thought I was nuts. Total credit in the economy (total social financing) showed a 40 per cent rise in November over the prior month and is on course for growth this year of almost 20 per cent.