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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

As surface transportation’s peak period ends for the year, and trucking eyes the traditionally slowest time for the industry as first quarter 2016, economic signals are, at best, mixed. Overoptimism 2008-2010 The SEP growth forecast for 2008 never turned negative. The actual growth rate for 2008 turned out to be –2.8%—the

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: FHA Swamped By Defaults.

MishTalk

According to Ligon, the only way the FHA can avoid a bailout is to reduce its market share by lowering maximum loan limits to $325,000 over the next four years, raise credit requirements for borrowers, and institute “burden sharing” with loan originators by reducing insurance coverage from the current 100 percent to 50 percent by 2016.

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FOMC Minutes and Economic Projections: Dissent in Both Directions

MishTalk

Participants also described their views regarding the appropriate path of the Federal Reserves balance sheet. Participants anticipated a gradual decline in the unemployment rate over the forecast period; a large majority projected that the unemployment rate would not reach their estimates of its longer-run level before 2016.

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Laughable Eurozone Banking "Non-Union"; Expect Disorderly Breakup

MishTalk

The latest proposals could see up to 126 people being consulted on how to wind up a bank, even though agreement might need to be reached over the course of a weekend while financial markets are closed. A big bank collapse would dwarf the available resources; some €473bn of capital has been pumped into EU banks since 2008.

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