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When a Simple Rule of Thumb Beats a Fancy Algorithm

Harvard Business

As they reported in a paper published in 2008 , rule-of-thumb methods were generally as good or even slightly better at predicting individual customer behavior than sophisticated models. “In general, if you are in an uncertain world, make it simple,” Gigerenzer said when I interviewed him earlier this year.

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Think About Any Risk Like an Investor

Harvard Business

Let’s see how the tenets might apply to three very different cases, each containing substantial risk. Sara Campbell, a talented dress designer, sold the majority of her apparel as a private label supplier to national chains. Steve’s case was a bit different.