The Naskapi, a nomadic people indigenous to Quebec and Labrador, hunted most of their food. You might expect, then, that much analyzing and strategizing went into the crucial decision of where to hunt: The Naskapi might have recorded how many moose or caribou they hunted to ensure they did not overexploit their hunting grounds; they might have made systematic plans to regularly explore new regions to discover new herds; or they might have tried to predict the likelihood of finding particular herds in different landscapes, like valleys, hills, or along rivers.
The Strategic Benefits of Randomized Decision-Making
In a volatile environment, searching for the single best course of action stalls progress.
September 26, 2023
Summary.
In highly ambiguous and challenging contexts, a random approach to decision-making confers a number of advantages. Operations managers have been using randomized decision-making since World War II (randomized search was used to locate enemy submarines in the open ocean), but it has not yet been seriously applied to strategic decision-making, which remains focused on hypothesis formulation and testing. In this article the authors explain the strategic benefits of randomized decision making — early advantage, faster learning, less predictability, and reduced biases — and offer advice on how to incorporate randomness in the strategy-making process.
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Strategy Planning and Execution Course
Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Strategy Planning and Execution. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
How to develop a winning strategy—and put it to work.