CEOs continue to send the same message about the U.S. economy: A recession is looming but persistent strength in the labor market will endure. Typically, corporate executives would be focused on cutting costs and jobs amid such uncertain times, but they instead anticipate the job market will stay competitive. The seeming cognitive dissonance underlies the complexity of an economy that has suffered serial shocks in recent years — from the pandemic to inflation to rapid interest rate hikes to a mini banking crisis — but which nonetheless continues to exude signs of resilience.
CEOs Are Predicting a Mild Recession in the U.S.
They expect a “short and shallow” downturn.
June 01, 2023
Jakub and Jedrzej Krzyszkowski/Stocksy
Summary.
A recent survey of CEOs suggests that most expect a recession in the U.S. but that it will be “short and shallow.” For that reason, many aren’t anticipating layoffs and some are even still hiring. It points toward a continuation of the current tight labor market, even as the economy cools in response to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the ongoing banking turmoil.