The new UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has just under three months to hammer out a process for the UK to leave the EU. The official mantra now is for the UK to leave the EU “do or die” by Halloween. Yet, the so-called “No Deal” Brexit that now appears likely does not resemble what the electorate was offered in 2016. A No Deal Brexit is the anathema to the Vote Leave campaign’s promise that any departure from the EU would be gradual and smooth. In fact, if that happens, most of the Leave side’s promises, such as the UK’s continued participation in the single market, would be broken.
Did Austerity in the UK Lead to the Brexit Crisis?
While a political solution to the Brexit crisis is yet to be found, our academic understanding of why the Brexit vote happened has developed significantly over the last three years. Studies have found that areas that supported Leave had an overall weaker economic structure, with lower levels of income and life satisfaction, fewer high status-jobs, an aging demographic, and lower levels of educational attainment. A recent paper shows that austerity-induced cuts to the welfare system since 2010 played an important role in shoring support for the UK Independence Party and Leave. The headline finding suggests that the 2016 EU referendum would have resulted in a clear victory for Remain (or the referendum might never have happened) had it not been for austerity.