“Robots could take over twenty-million jobs by 2030” (Taylor, 2019).
Economists have analysed long-term trends around the level of automation in the workplace. Currently, we live along-side 2.25 million robots worldwide. This statistic has multiplied threefold in the last two decades (Taylor, 2019). Humans invent things that society needs. This reasoning forms the basis of the saying that “necessity is the mother of invention” (Woodford, 2019). While robots were predicted and have led to significant productivity gains, there are at the same time a number of drawbacks (Taylor, 2019).
Artificial intelligence is already having an impact in our daily lives. We see this when we go to the supermarket and half, or even more, of the checkout aisles are do-it-yourself stations. This has not only reduced the need for checkout operators but who now packs the bags? The individual scanning their groceries. This begs the question, why do we favour productivity and efficiency if the new technology is simultaneously kicking workers out of jobs and diminishing the user experience?
Well, for one thing, it remains to be seen whether robots will increase or decrease the demand for labour. If robots are mostly used to augment human abilities, then this will lead to rising productivity and thus increasing demand for labour. On the other hand, robots could be used to replace functions traditionally carried out by humans, and thereby reduce the demand for labour. According to Kenneth Coats, innovator and CEO of Kentech, artificial intelligence will be a net-job creator. While artificial intelligence will replace people from certain jobs, like the supermarket cashier, Coats believes that AI is “more likely to change tasks and create new kinds of jobs”. If this is the case, then governments should provide incentives to firms for investing in AI and robotics systems.
Artificial intelligence will enable machines to achieve goals and solve problems in uncertain environments by functioning appropriately in novel situations and foreseeing problems before they occur. According to Darrell West, Director of the Centre for Technology Innovation at Brookings, artificial intelligence has a 50% chance of outperforming at all human tasks within the next decade (Coats, 2018). You will be able to hand over your university essay to your robot to write for you or let it drive a bus full of high school students to camp.
So, how exactly is artificial intelligence transforming society? Here are 5 areas to watch:
- Transportation: Self-driving technology is already being deployed, albeit on a small scale. The technology will eventually allow ride-hailing companies like Lyft and Uber to dispense with human drivers, which will reduce the cost of these services to consumers. This will make it highly uneconomical to own your own car, which may put traditional auto-manufacturers under pressure. Self-driving technology will also make truck drivers redundant in short order. With 3.5 million truck drivers in America alone, this is likely to lead to a sharp increase in unemployment and a period of political unrest.
- Home services: We already have smart robotic vacuum cleaners tidying up after us. The latest smart home technology is now making it possible to remotely monitor and run a home and the appliances within it. These systems include smart home lighting, temperature, entertainment, utilities, virtual assistants, surveillance, and security systems.
- Health care: Not only is AI making it possible for people to use personal health monitoring devices and gain real time access to electronic health records but AI is also augmenting the skills and expertise of trained medical doctors by providing health data and insights in a range of areas including oncology and medical imaging. Surgical robots are helping surgeons perform minimally invasive operations from which patients can recover more quickly, and service robots are increasing the efficiency of hospitals by delivering documents, medicines and other things.
- Education: Interactive computerised tutors will boost knowledge and the speed at which people are able to learn new skills (Coats, 2018). Why would you not want an expert available 24/7 when you’re studying?
- Public safety: Police are using artificial intelligence to collect and analyse huge volumes of data in order to spot patterns, uncover new leads, and solve criminal investigations (Revell, 2017). The technology has the potential to improve the effectiveness of the criminal justice system by allowing both the prosecution and defence to provide the court with a more transparent view of the evidence.
What else should we keep in mind?
Using robots to exploit or subdue people may be more of a concern than robots taking our jobs. Or, could we all have overlooked the warning in the movie WALL-E of what can happen when humans misuse ultra-modern technology? For example, a recent BBC news article warns of an AI software program called GPT-2 that can be used to generate fake news (Wakefield, 2019). The system is considered to write articles that are “as good as a human writer” and was initially not released to the public by its creators, OpenAI, because of the potential for abuse and malicious activity. One commentator noted that the robot “represents the kind of technology that evil humans are going to use to manipulate the population – and in my opinion that makes it more dangerous than any gun” (Wakefield, 2019).
How will people develop a career in a world full of intelligent robots? Increasingly firms are starting to consider the ethical implications of artificial intelligence and how these systems will interact with human employees (Wakefield, 2019). We will either be replaced, work along-side these new robots, or perhaps become their pets. How will things play out? Time will tell.
Celine Smith is a student at Victoria University of Wellington completing a conjoint degree in Law and Commerce. Conducting research for the School of Information Systems, she is invested in obtaining a career that advances information technologies.
Image: Pexels
References
Coats, K. (2018, December 28). Let The Robots Take Over: How The Future Of AI Will Create More Jobs. Retrieved from Forbes website: https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2018/12/28/let-the-robots-take-over-how-the-future-of-ai-will-create-more-jobs/
Woodford, C. (2019, January 26). Retrieved from Explain that Stuff. http://www.explainthatstuff.com/inventors-and-inventions.html
Revell, T. (2017, May 10). Retrieved from New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23431254-000-ai-detective-analyses-police-data-to-learn-how-to-crack-cases/
Taylor, C. (2019, June 26). Robots could take over 20 million jobs by 2030, study claims. Retrieved from CNBC website: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/26/robots-could-take-over-20-million-jobs-by-2030-study-claims.html
Wakefield, J. (2019, August 27). “Dangerous” AI offers to write fake news. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-49446729