Serena crunched all the numbers and made the best estimates possible when she was preparing the coming quarter’s sales projections for the product she managed. She used lessons from her graduate studies in statistics and decision science. Informed by historical trends, economic forecasts, and market projections, she estimated a total sales volume of 1,000 units. In addition, she estimated a 15% probability that sales would fall below 900, and a 15% probability that sales would surpass 1,100. When she finished presenting her forecast, the first comment was from the CEO; she leaned back, scowled at Serena, and said, “I don’t pay you to be uncertain.”
Leading with Confidence in Uncertain Times
Five tools to help you plan and make decisions when the future is unclear.
August 31, 2022
Summary.
If you are looking for fool-proof strategy for obtaining certainty, we have bad news for you—the world is complicated and markets are difficult to predict. But, if you are looking for ideas to manage the uncertain future, we have good news. There are tools for thinking through uncertainty and using it to plan and make decisions. These tools are useful in everyday life and every economic climate, regardless of whether the world is at war or at peace; whether the economy is growing or contracting; and whether we are in a bull or a bear market. Here, we share five tools for thriving in an uncertain world: expected value, the wisdom of the crowd, confidence calibration, hedging, and communicating uncertainty with confidence.
New!
HBR Learning
Decision Making Course
Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Decision Making. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Practical ways to improve your decision-making process.
Learn More & See All Courses
New!
HBR Learning
Decision Making Course
Accelerate your career with Harvard ManageMentor®. HBR Learning’s online leadership training helps you hone your skills with courses like Decision Making. Earn badges to share on LinkedIn and your resume. Access more than 40 courses trusted by Fortune 500 companies.
Practical ways to improve your decision-making process.