Last night, Liz and I went to a nearby bar for karaoke. On a spur of the moment decision, I went up to about 20 people and stated “I am taking an informal poll. Who are you for in the presidential election?”
Several people were reluctant to respond until I stated, don’t worry, I am not going to debate you, I just want to know who you are for.
The mix of people was roughly 50% men and 50% women. There were no blacks. The age group was roughly mid-30s to mid-60s.
Mish Tabulation
- Trump 9
- Sanders 6
- Cruz 1
- Not Voting 3
- Refuse to Answer 1
The person who said he would vote for Cruz disclosed he really preferred Rubio. Of the three who said they would likely not vote, two probably won’t. The other was a woman for Trump but is totally disgusted by the posting of candidate’s wife’s pictures.
The one person who refused to answer was a woman who said I will tell you if you tell me who you are voting for. After I told her, she refused to answer.
I was positive that one woman whom I know reasonably well from karaoke would have been for Clinton. She surprised me with a vote for Trump and an outright tirade against Hillary.
I live in a swing district of sorts. It went from a male Republican congressman to a female Democrat back to Republican. Each switch was unexpected, if for no other reason than it is typically difficult to dislodge an incumbent.
None of this is scientific, but I was surprised that not a single person I asked was for Hillary. I listened to comments but did not seek comments. Several women blasted Hillary.
Disaster for Republicans if Trump Not the Nominee
According to a just released Reuters poll, one third of Republican voters who support Donald Trump could turn their backs on their party in November’s presidential election if he is denied the nomination in a contested convention.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted March 30 to April 8 asked Trump’s Republican supporters two questions: if Trump wins the most delegates in the primaries but loses the nomination, what would they do on Election Day, and how would it impact their relationship with the Republican Party?
This is what the respondents said:
ZeroHedge has more details in his commentary Poll Finds Denying Trump Nomination Would Crush GOP.
I remain convinced that Cruz cannot possibly beat Hillary, but Trump might.
My reasoning: Hillary will get nearly 100% of the black vote and most of the female vote. Evangelical Cruz offers anti-war independents and angry white union workers nothing, but Trump does.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
