When you’ve got a difficult question to answer, do you consult multiple experts to get a sense of their individual views, or ask a group to deliberate together? Studies on the concept of collective intelligence suggests that when managed properly, asking a group can lead to more accurate estimates than simply averaging the recommendations of multiple independent advisors.
Some Questions Benefit from Group Discussion. Others Don’t.
Research on the concept of “collective intelligence” has shown that in many cases, groups tend to come up with more accurate estimates after discussing a question than individual experts do on their own. However, a new study found that while this holds true for quantitative questions — i.e., “How long will the project take?” — groups are actually less accurate than individuals when it comes to yes/no questions, such as, “Will the project be done before the deadline?”. Based on this nuanced distinction, the authors offer three strategies for managers to reap the benefits of group deliberation without falling prey to its downsides: Focus teams on discussing data, not predicting outcomes; separate “How Much?” questions from “Yes or No?” questions; and continuously capture data on group dynamics and team members’ strengths and weaknesses to inform future decision-making.