Will Governments Restrict Foreign Access to Pandemic Supplies?

Reverse protectionism is a threat to global health — and business.

by

Henry Farrell

and

Abraham L. Newman

by

Henry Farrell

and

Abraham L. Newman

March 23, 2020

Westend61/Getty Images

Summary.

As the Covid-19 pandemic unfolds, news reports about a U.S. effort to lure a German vaccine-maker to the U.S. has raised fears of “reverse protectionism,” in which states restrict exports rather than imports and fight with each other to win control of scarce resources needed to protect their citizens. Just as traditional protectionism deepened the Great Depression, the new protectionism could prolong the Covid-19 pandemic by making it harder for states to fight it, worsening its impact. It will be a very uncomfortable world for business if these mutual suspicions grow and become established. In the short term, these suspicions may hamper global cooperation against the coronavirus. But equally troubling is the longer-term risk that bellicose rhetoric could undermine support and trust in global supply chain networks, which are already under strain. The push towards lean supply chains and just-in-time production has quickly flipped into bottlenecks and unexpected vulnerabilities. Government officials could take advantage of such vulnerabilities to score political points and in turn shake business confidence in their global investments.

As the Covid-19 pandemic unfolds, there is a lurking threat that we can no longer ignore: What happens if countries hoard or even nationalize vital resources to fight the disease? On March 2, according to the New York Times, the White House tried to persuade CureVac, a German company that is working on a Covid-19 vaccine, to move to the United States. A German newspaper claimed that the Trump administration wanted the U.S. to secure sole access to a vaccine, a claim the U.S. and the CureVac both denied. But the German government was rattled; its foreign minister, Heiko Maas, proclaimed that “we cannot allow a situation where others want to exclusively acquire the results of their research.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with senior German officials to discuss how to prevent the bid. A few days later, the Global Times, a newspaper owned by the Chinese Communist Party, published an editorial claiming that “the development of a vaccine is a battle that China cannot afford to lose,” arguing that China cannot rely on either Europe or the United States to give it access to a vaccine.

HF

Henry Farrell is a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.
AN

Abraham L. Newman is a professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and in its Department of Government. He also serves as the director of Georgetown’s Mortara Center for International Studies.

Will Governments Restrict Foreign Access to Pandemic Supplies?

Partner Center

Explore HBR

HBR Store

About HBR

Manage My Account

Follow HBR